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A high-profile case of insider trading has rocked the tech industry as a Google software engineer faces charges for allegedly using confidential data to win big on prediction market bets.
A Google software engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, is facing serious charges after allegedly making $1.2 million in profit through insider trading on Polymarket, a prediction market platform. The US Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI have accused Spagnuolo of misappropriating confidential information from Google to place bets on which public figures would top the company’s rankings for most searched names in 2025.
Spagnuolo, an Italian citizen living in Switzerland, was arrested and brought before a federal judge in New York. The DOJ announced charges including commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. According to the unsealed criminal complaint, Spagnuolo used his access to Google’s internal systems, particularly a tool with confidential Year in Search data, to gain an unfair advantage.
The case underscores significant legal and ethical concerns within the tech industry. Spagnuolo allegedly placed bets on Polymarket under the username "AlphaRaccoon," risking over $2.7 million on approximately 25 Google Year in Search 2025 outcomes. Unlike other traders, he knew the outcomes before they were publicly disclosed, giving him a clear edge.
Between October 15, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Spagnuolo’s bets included $937,688 on the "No" side of whether Bianca Censori would be the #1 searched person on Google for the year, and $613,587 on the "No" side of whether Pope Leo XIV would hold the top spot. These bets were made using information that was not available to the general public until Google’s official Year in Search 2025 results were announced in early December.

Google has taken swift action, suspending Spagnuolo and cooperating with law enforcement. In a statement provided to Ars Technica, the company said, “The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We’ve placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action.”
This case highlights the critical importance of data security and ethical conduct within tech companies. The misuse of internal data not only breaches company policy but also undermines trust with users and stakeholders. For Google, this incident could have far-reaching implications, including potential legal penalties, reputational damage, and increased scrutiny over its data access policies.
The broader message for the industry is clear: robust internal controls and stringent ethical guidelines are essential to prevent such abuses of power. As tech companies continue to handle vast amounts of sensitive information, ensuring that employees adhere to high standards of integrity remains a top priority.
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Original Sources
FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket
↗ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/fbi-says-google-engineer-used-internal-search-data-to-win-1-2m-on-polymarket
LLMs believe false statements even after explicit warnings that they’re false
↗ https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/05/llms-believe-false-statements-even-after-explicit-warnings-that-theyre-false
About the author
Marcus began tracking AI's market implications in 2016, noticing AI-related patent filings accelerating ahead of earnings upgrades before most of the sell-side had caught on. A former fixed-income quantitative analyst, he spent two decades building models that priced risk across emerging markets before pivoting to cover the economic impact of AI full-time. His writing translates opaque technical developments into clear risk/reward terms — and he's rarely diplomatic about the gap between AI valuations and underlying fundamentals. He believes most market participants still underestimate AI's long-run deflationary effect on knowledge work.
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