Waymo's Serious Crashes: Mostly Human Error, Few Software Failures

Waymo recently released new safety statistics for its fleet of self-driving cars, and the numbers are impressive. After completing 96 million miles of driving through June, Waymo estimates that its vehicles were involved in far fewer crashes compared to human drivers under similar conditions. Specifically, while typical human drivers would have experienced 159 airbag-triggering crashes over 96 million miles, Waymo reported only 34 such incidents-a 79 percent reduction.

But what about the more serious crashes? To get a closer look at the safety of Waymo's vehicles, I analyzed 45 major crashes that occurred in recent months. Here’s what stood out:

• Most Crashes Were Not Waymo's Fault: Out of the 45 most serious crashes, the vast majority were caused by human error or external factors. Only a few incidents can be attributed to mechanical failures or issues with Waymo’s self-driving software.

The Most Serious Crash: A Mechanical Failure

One of the most significant crashes occurred on May 31st in Austin, Texas. At 1:14 AM, a Waymo vehicle was driving on South Lamar Boulevard when the front left wheel detached. The car skidded to a stop, scraping against the pavement and causing minor injuries to the passenger. This incident is one of the few that can be clearly attributed to Waymo, but it was due to a mechanical failure rather than a software error.

Safety Statistics: A Closer Look

• Airbag Deployments: Waymo's vehicles were involved in 34 airbag deployments over 96 million miles, compared to an estimated 159 for human drivers.
• Injury-Causing Crashes: Waymo’s vehicles were 80 percent less likely to be involved in crashes that caused injuries.
• Pedestrian Injuries: The risk of injuring pedestrians was reduced by 92 percent.
• Cyclist Injuries: Crashes involving cyclists were 78 percent less common with Waymo’s vehicles.

Analyzing the Crash Reports

Waymo is required to report every significant crash to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). This week, NHTSA published a new batch of crash reports covering incidents through August 15. Here are some key findings from these reports:

• Human Error: Many crashes involved other drivers failing to yield, running red lights, or making sudden maneuvers.
• External Factors: Some incidents were caused by road conditions, such as debris on the road or unexpected obstacles.
• Waymo's Response: In most cases, Waymo’s vehicles responded appropriately to avoid or mitigate the crash. For example, in one incident, a Waymo vehicle detected a pedestrian stepping into the road and came to a safe stop.

Trusting the Data

While these statistics are encouraging, it’s important to remain critical of any data published by a company about its own products. However, experts have previously noted that Waymo's methodology is credible. The transparency in reporting each crash to NHTSA adds an additional layer of accountability.

Conclusion

Waymo's safety record is impressive, and the data suggests that self-driving technology has the potential to significantly reduce the number of crashes caused by human error. While there are still occasional mechanical issues, they are rare and not indicative of broader systemic failures in Waymo’s technology. As the company continues to refine its systems and expand its fleet, it will be crucial to maintain this level of transparency and safety.